When Indian IT Was Written Off — And Came Back Stronger Every Time

It was the dawn of the new millennium. The dot-com bubble had burst. Global tech stocks were tumbling, and Indian IT was right in the eye of the storm. Infosys and Wipro slipped 60%, and headlines screamed that the “outsourcing dream was fading before it even began”.

But here’s the twist: By 2005, the very same companies soared back over 200%, powering India’s emergence as a global tech powerhouse.

Fast forward to 2008 — the world was drowning in a financial crisis. Banks tightened their belts and slashed tech budgets. Indian IT valuations halved. Experts penned the sector’s obituary.

Yet by 2011, Indian IT staged a remarkable comeback, recovering over 150%, stronger and more resilient than ever.

Then came 2020. Lockdowns froze projects; clients paused spends. The sector took a sharp hit — down 35%. But months later, it rebounded at lightning speed, riding the digital wave that rewrote business playbooks globally.

Every crash felt like the end. Every recovery ushered in a new beginning.

2025: The Familiar Crossroads

Today’s mood feels hauntingly familiar.

  • The Nifty IT index has slipped almost 27% from its peak, with valuations now at 23x earnings — far below the frothy 38x highs of 2022.
  • The sector sits on ₹8 trillion in cash, nearly 7% of current sector market cap. Wipro’s cash alone equals 20% of its market value.
  • Dividends? The sector is throwing off a record 3.1% yield (compare that to just 1.3% for the Nifty 50) — providing powerful downside support in rough waters.
  • Most striking: IT’s weight in the Nifty 50 is at all-time lows. On the global stage, Indian IT is the most under-owned it’s been in decades.
  • Add to this the current FII’s exit, sector rotation, and muted global fund flows — and you get arguably the most “contrarian” setup we have seen in a decade.

Historically, every time IT’s representation has dropped this low, it’s set the stage for strong outperformance versus the broader market in the years that followed.

The Shadows That Follow

Of course, every cycle brings its own set of worries:

  • Trump’s eye-watering H-1B visa fee changes threaten to rearrange global delivery models.
  • BFSI and retail clients in the West are still cautious, holding back discretionary spend.
  • Tech hiring has slowed: September 2025 saw a 24% drop in new IT jobs, while overall attrition and employee costs remain thorny issues as firms try to preserve margins.
  • A bigger worry: Indian IT spends barely 1% of revenues on R&D (a fraction of global peers). In an AI-first world, that’s a gap—but it’s also optionality if the sector pivots boldly.
  • Another structural headwind: More multinationals are building GCCs in India, insourcing high-value functions and cutting IT outsourcing, squeezing margins.

Even so, fundamentals remain sound. The sector is a cornerstone of India’s GDP and on track to cross $300bn in annual exports. While earnings growth is modest and management commentary cautious, large deal wins and digital transformation continue.

Importantly, higher EPS growth at leading IT firms hasn’t yet translated into shareholder returns—a disconnect that often precedes powerful re-ratings.

But Why This Feels Like a Classic Contra Bet

  • Historic Under-Representation = Historic Opportunity
    IT’s current underweight status in both domestic and global indices has, time and again, set the table for alpha-generating rallies.
  • Mean Reversion Power
    The best returns in Indian IT have usually come from cycles like today, when pessimism dominates and stocks are in the doghouse.
  • Cash and Dividends as Shields
    Firms are converting 90%+ of profits to free cash, fueling buybacks and dividends—giving investors both income and safety nets.
  • Resilience Through Diversification
    India’s IT leaders are swiftly moving into semiconductors and electronics, leveraging engineering strengths as the global chip market booms. This strategic pivot de-risks traditional business, taps into sunrise sectors, and adds a new layer of long-term stability.
  • The AI Wildcard
    Here’s the ace: India’s aggressive new AI mission, with expanded infrastructure and talent skilling, puts the sector in pole position for the next digital leap.
    The winners? Those who pivot quickly from labor-led to AI-first models, using their war chests to innovate and scale.

Are we at the absolute bottom? Maybe not. But the setup feels like déjà vu — the kind that has historically rewarded investors willing to wait.

The Final Turn

Every crash carried the same cynical chorus: “This time, IT sector will face the down tune.”

And every time, Indian IT answered with “grit, innovation, and one of the most inspiring comebacks in business history”.

As we stand at another crossroads, all the signals that marked past rebounds—a corrected sector, record cash, high dividends, global under-ownership—are flashing again.

In 2025, the story isn’t done being written. If history is any guide, Indian IT is just about to turn today’s uncertainty into tomorrow’s opportunity.

The question is: Will you be there when history turns?

Until next Sunday, here’s to wiser investing and brighter Journie ahead.

Disclaimer: This update is for informational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

Recent Blogs

Disruption in Wealth Creation: Next-Gen HNWI & India’s Great Transfer

The Biggest Wealth Shift in History

Over the next two decades, an estimated USD 83.5 trillion (roughly matching the combined GDP of the U.S. and EU combined) will move from one generation to the next worldwide. This is not just a transfer of assets — it is a handover of values, priorities, and investment philosophies.

For decades, first-generation wealth creators defined wealth in tangible terms: real estate, gold, successful businesses, and legacy assets. The next wave — Gen X, Millennials, and even Gen Z — are rewriting the playbook. For them, wealth is not simply about preservation; it’s about purpose, flexibility, and opportunities, underpinned by digital engagement and informed decision-making.

The Global Picture

The Capgemini World Wealth Report 2025 reveals that global HNWI wealth rebounded by 4.2% in 2024, with the HNI population rose 2.6%. But beneath these numbers lies a more nuanced trend:

  • Portfolio shifts: Around 15% of global HNWI assets are now allocated to alternatives such as private equity, venture capital, and other non-traditional investments.
  • Digital expectation: Survey indicates Next-gen HNWIs expect frictionless, tech-driven experiences that provide real-time insights and intuitive portfolio management.
  • Trust remains central: Over 80% of next-gen HNWIs would reconsider their wealth manager if they perceived a lack of transparency, credibility, or ethical oversight.

The disruption in wealth creation is therefore twofold: a redefinition of priorities and a shift in how wealth is managed and engaged with.

India’s Great Transfer

India presents an accelerated version of this global shift, with wealth creation and transfer compressed into a much shorter timeframe:

  • India’s HNWI wealth rose 8% in 2024, reaching USD 1.5 trillion
  • The HNWI population in India stands at 378,810 by January 2025, reflecting a 6% year-on-year growth.
  • “Millionaires Next Door” (USD 1–5 million assets) now number 333,340, holding ~USD 629 billion
  • Ultra-HNWIs (USD 30M+) number around 4,290, with combined wealth of USD 535 billion.
  • Over the next decade, USD 1.3 trillion is expected to pass from India’s first-gen wealth creators to their heirs.
  • India’s UHNW population is projected to grow ~50% between 2023–2028, one of the fastest rates globally.
  • Family offices in India surged from 45 in 2018 to 300+ in 2024, and are expected to reach 1,000 by 2030, making governance and succession planning central issues.
  • India’s GIFT City is now the launchpad for global diversification, allowing easier, compliant dollar-based investing for HNWIs—highlighting the increasing offshore mindset.

This is not merely a numeric transaction. Indian wealth that took decades to accumulate is now moving to digitally native heirs — and with that transfer comes new behavior and new expectations.

The Governance Risk

Yet wealth transfer isn’t frictionless. Globally, an estimated 70% of wealthy families lose their wealth bt the second generation , and 905 by the third.

In India, where first-generation wealth creation has been dominant, this is a pressing risk. The lack of estate planning, fragmented structures, and reliance on informal governance makes continuity fragile.

Next-Gen Priorities & Behaviour

The new generation of wealth stewards are digital-first, but trust-led. Their financial decisions are shaped by the interplay of transparency, digital access, and ethical engagement:

  • Trust First, Digital Next → While seamless technology is expected, it is the credibility, transparency, and ethics of the manager or platform that truly secures long-term relationships.
  • Global Mindset → Offshore exposure among next-gen Indian HNWIs is expected to grow 10%+ by 2030, reflecting comfort with global opportunities and diversification.
  • Purpose and Impact → Sustainability, social impact, and purpose driven investing are increasingly central to allocation decisions rather than optional add-ons.
  • Liquidity & Flexibility → Unlike previous generations, experiences, lifestyle alignment, and optionality in wealth use are key considerations.

The Role of Trust-Led Digital Solutions

Wealth management is no longer just about advice and returns; it is about creating trusted ecosystems that combine technology, security, transparency, and ethical oversight:

  • Transparency: Clear reporting and accountability on investments and performance.
  • Personalization: Tailored strategies leveraging analytics, data insights, and lifestyle considerations.
  • Security & Ethical Design: Robust protection of client data, coupled with principled use of technology.
  • Guided Innovation: Platforms must balance digital efficiency with trust-building — technology enhances engagement only when anchored in credibility.

Next-gen HNWIs expect this balance — a seamless digital experience that doesn’t compromise trust or legacy values.

Closing Reflection

The coming decade will define India’s wealth landscape. The Great Transfer is not just about shifting assets; it is about redefining wealth itself.

For next-gen HNWIs, the symbols of wealth are evolving: from estates to ecosystems, from secrecy to transparency, from preservation to purposeful growth. Those who embrace both legacy and innovation, trust and technology, guidance and autonomy will be the true beneficiaries of this historic transition.

At Journie, we continue to navigate these shifts with clarity, trust, and technology-driven foresight.

Because wealth is not just inherited — it’s redefined.

Sources: Capgemini World Wealth Report 2025, Knight Frank Wealth Report 2024/25, Financial Express, Family Business Institute.

Recent Blogs

GST 2.0 — The Big Simplification, The Small Print

India is rewriting its tax playbook.

After years of layered GST slabs, the government has announced a sweeping reform. Effective September 22, 2025, the Goods & Services Tax (GST) will shift from a maze of four slabs, surcharges, and exemptions to a sleeker, simpler regime.

Most goods and services will now fall under two main slabs — 5% and 18%, with a steep 40% levy reserved for sin and luxury items. Essentials and exports continue in the zero-GST bucket.

Branded as “GST 2.0”, the reform promises ease of compliance, lower prices, and a consumption boost across the economy.

But beneath the headlines, the real story unfolds in the fine print — one where bold promise meets the realities of markets, margins, and accounting complexities.

The Big Promise: Simplicity, Savings, and Stimulus

Imagine you’re buying your favorite appliance, a new car, or simply stocking up on staples. Under GST 2.0, these look lighter on the pocket:
  • Everyday goods like soaps and detergentsslide into the 5% slab.
  • Cars and appliances, once taxed at 28%, now sit at 18%.
  • Education, medicines, and healthcare continue with nil or zero GST, directly easing household budgets.

The government’s play is clear: simplify the tax maze, tame inflation, and fuel demand — a much-needed growth push as inflationary pressures squeeze wallets.

The ITC Puzzle: Where the Fine Print Shapes the Price Tag

To understand why the full GST cut may not always show up on shelves, we need to visit the Input Tax Credit (ITC) landscape.

What is ITC?
It’s the GST a business pays on its inputs — raw materials, services, and overheads. Firms offset this against the GST they collect on sales, ensuring tax isn’t charged repeatedly through the chain.

The catch under GST 2.0 lies in the distinction between two “zero tax” categories:

  • Nil-rated: Goods/services taxed at 0% or a very low rate (like 5%), but still inside GST. Businesses can claim ITC or even refunds.
  • Exempt: Goods/services outside GST credit chain. No GST on output, but input credits must be reversed or absorbed, raising costs.

Insurance premiums are a prime example: shifted to the zero-GST bucket but treated as exempt, not nil-rated. This means insurers must reverse ITC (3–5% of costs), blunting the full benefit of the cut. For consumers, relief may be smaller or slower than the headline promise suggests.

Two products at “zero GST” can therefore deliver very different consumer outcomes.

Breaking It Down: The Price Math

Picture this: A product costs a manufacturer ₹100 as input and ₹50 as value addition plus margin, totaling ₹150 before tax to the consumer.
  • Under the old 18% GST, input tax on ₹100 is ₹18, output tax on ₹150 is ₹27, but since input tax is credited against output tax, the final GST paid is just ₹9. Add this back to ₹150, consumer price is ₹177.
  • Under GST 2.0 at 5% with ITC allowed (nil-rated), output tax drops to ₹7.50. Since ₹18 ITC is claimed, the firm actually gets a refund, pushing the consumer price to ₹157.50 — a ₹19.50 saving.
  • But if the product is exempt and ITC not allowed, the business must absorb the ₹18, pushing costs up. Consumer price may only drop to ₹168 — half the benefit passes on.
 

Old regime (18% GST, ITC allowed)

New regime (5% GST, nil-rated, ITC allowed)

New regime (Exempt, ITC reversed or absorbed)

Input GST paid

18
18
18

Output GST

27
7.5
0

Net GST Liability after ITC

9
-10.5
-18

Final consumer Price

177
157.5
168

Consumer Savings vs Old Price

 
19.5
9

What this tells us

Same “zero GST” label, but nil-rated with ITC means maximum savings, while exempt without ITC leaves hidden costs in the chain.
  • For products shifted to 5% with ITC preserved (like FMCG staples, soaps, haircare items), consumer savings are closer to the maximum possible (in models ~10-12% or more).
  • For items/policies made exempt (insurance, some services), savings are significantly diluted because input costs (on which GST was paid) cannot be recovered via ITC.

Sector Snapshots: Winners & Watchouts

Automobiles

The poster child of GST 2.0. Cars and bikes shift from 28% to 18%. Price cuts are rolling out, sparking demand. The festive season tailwind is already priced in, with the Nifty Auto Index up ~12% over the past month.

FMCG

Many staples drop into the 5% bucket. Benefits depend on ITC flow, but razor-thin margins and stiff competition mean companies are likely to pass on gains. FMCG majors have hinted at resets, and sector ETFs are up ~4–5% in recent weeks.

Insurance

A cautionary tale. Premiums are treated as exempt, not nil-rated. ITC reversals (3–5% of costs) blunt the full 18% reduction. Relief for consumers will be muted and demand surge is unlikely. Markets have been cautious too — listed insurers have seen muted or flat moves as investors await clarity on ITC treatment.

Textiles & Apparel

Among the hardest hit by inverted duty structures. Yarns are taxed at 12% while finished fabrics fall under 5%. This mismatch builds up ITC, and refund delays squeeze working capital, muting pass-through. Markets reflect this strain — textile stocks remain under pressure as investors wait for clarity on refund timelines.

Healthcare & Agriculture

Both continue in zero-rated zones. Medicines, seeds, and fertilizers should see smoother consumer benefits. Pharma and agro stocks have held steady, with investors watching Q3 results for GST-linked margin impacts.

Luxury & Sin Goods

Stay taxed at ~40%. No change for consumers. Pricing power remains intact, and liquor & tobacco majors trade in line with indices asno GST-driven boost expected.

Transition Realities: Why Change Won’t Be Instant

Even with the slab cuts, the road to lower prices is uneven. Businesses face practical hurdles:
  • Inventories purchased earlier at old tax rates delay price resets.
  • ERP, invoicing, and compliance systems need updates.
  • Government refunds for inverted duty credits may bottleneck.
  • Market competition will primarily drive benefit pass-through.

Consumers should expect relief in phases — faster for autos and FMCG, slower for insurance, services, and capital goods.

The Global Stage: A Signal Beyond Borders

GST 2.0 isn’t just about domestic consumption.
It signals to global investors and manufacturers that India is serious about simplifying taxes, reducing disputes, and stabilizing compliance. For a country pitching itself as a manufacturing hub, this is a credibility booster.
The Bottom Line

GST 2.0 is a bold simplification — a leaner, cleaner tax design.

For competitive, fast-moving sectors like autos and FMCG, benefits will flow quickly. For others entangled in ITC constraints like insurance and textiles, relief will be partial, slower, or muted.

This reform captures India’s push to balance simplicity, fairness, and growth — but its success will be judged not in policy papers, but on store shelves, service bills, and household budgets.

This Sunday, as GST’s next chapter unfolds, remember: The headline is simplification. The story is in the small print.

At Journie, we cut through complexity to bring you clarity — because in finance, it’s always the fine print that decides the outcome.

Disclaimer: This update is for informational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

Recent Blogs

The Race for Gold & Silver — The New Wealth Playbook

The Sparkle in the Headlines

Imagine waking on a September Sunday morning, sunlight glinting off your coffee cup — and the real sparkle in the headlines: gold and silver smashing records, captivating markets, families, and nations alike.

Gold has pierced through $3,500 an ounce, up over 30% this year. Silver has surged past $40 an ounce, its highest in more than a decade. In India, the story shines brighter still — gold over ₹1,07,000 per 10 grams, silver past ₹1,25,000 per kg.

So, what’s behind this dazzling rally? Let’s trace the story behind the shine.

The Great Escape: From Treasuries to Timeless Security

Central banks worldwide — from Beijing to New Delhi to Warsaw — are steadily adding gold to their reserves, a move shaped not by ambition but by caution: a need for safety, for insurance against uncertainty.

For decades, U.S. Treasuries carried the “risk-free” label. But that confidence is shifting. Countries are trimming Treasury holdings — nearly $48 billion this year alone — and redirecting reserves into gold, a metal that can’t be frozen, sanctioned, or defaulted on.

India has reduced its U.S. Treasury Bill share while adding gold. China has also reduced its U.S. Treasury exposure by more than a quarter in just two years and expanded its bullion reserves. Globally, central banks now hold more gold than Treasuries for the first time since 1996.

A Quiet Vote of No Confidence

Each ton bought is not just a portfolio move –

it’s a vote of no confidence in the old order. Inflation fears, debt risks, and doubts over the dollar’s dominance are pushing nations toward gold as the ultimate reserve asset.

What was once “risk-free” is losing its shine, and gold is back as the reserve of last resort.

The Fed, the Dollar, and the Domino Effect

Layer on top the Federal Reserve’s pivot. With markets betting on rate cuts, holding cash looks less rewarding.

A softer dollar makes gold and silver even more attractive to global buyers.

The domino effect? Every rate-cut whisper nudges investors closer to precious metals.

Gold’s Golden Hour: The Beacon of Trust

When currencies wobble, when conflicts flare, when paper promises lose credibility — gold endures.

At $3,500+ an ounce, gold’s 30% surge this year has cemented its role as the global safe haven. From Indian households to sovereign vaults across Europe and Asia, gold is the fallback the world still trusts.

Major banks now forecast $3,700 by year-end and even $4,000 next year. Gold isn’t just glittering — it’s guiding global wealth strategies.

Silver: The Industrial Star with a Safe-Haven Twist

Silver isn’t just tagging along in gold’s rally — it’s scripting its own story. Crossing $40 an ounce for the first time in over a decade, silver is riding a structural wave.

It’s the metal of the energy transition — wiring solar panels, powering EVs, and feeding the appetite of AI-driven electronics. Supply can’t keep up: for the fourth straight year, demand has outpaced mine output.

And though central banks rarely hold silver, 2025 brought rare moves: Saudi Arabia invested over $40 million in silver ETFs, and Russia reportedly added to physical silver reserves. The numbers may be small, but the signal is loud: silver’s future is being reimagined as both an industrial backbone and a strategic store of value.

The Market Drama: Fear, FOMO & Fortunes

This rally isn’t just about numbers — it’s about psychology. Fear of instability, fear of missing out, and the collective chase for safety are pulling more investors into precious metals.

Behind every spike is a story of anxiety and ambition — a reminder of how deeply we chase stability.

The Bigger Picture

This isn’t just a metal rally — it’s a historic wealth shift. 

Governments cutting Treasuries for bullion, industries leaning on silver for sustainability, and investors reshaping strategies all point to a new global playbook for wealth and safety.

What This Means for Investors

The rally is ultimately a tale of two metals.

Gold has reclaimed its role as a hedge — a vote of trust, or mistrust, and the world’s reserve of last resort. Silver, meanwhile, acts as a bridge between the old and the new: rooted in tradition, yet powering tomorrow’s technology.

Together, they reveal today’s truth: institutions no longer feel fully safe with paper promises, and industries cannot function without hard resources.

But while this sharp rally reflects strong demand and optimism, it also calls for thoughtful consideration as investors weigh new opportunities in gold and silver at these elevated levels.

The Reflective Close

For centuries, empires measured wealth in these metals. Today, as currencies wobble and technologies surge, gold and silver remind us that some anchors never lose relevance.

Their shine isn’t just on the surface — it lies in what they signal: a world searching for trust, safety, and tangible value. And if history is any guide, today’s glittering highs may just be the prologue to tomorrow’s financial reset.

Disclaimer: This update is for informational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

Recent Blogs

India’s New Investing Journie: Copper in the Crossfire

Setting the Stage

Every decade has a commodity that defines it.

In the 1970s, it was oil.

In the 2000s, it was gold.

In this decade of EVs, renewables, and AI-driven infrastructure — it is copper.

Copper is no longer just wiring hidden in walls. It’s the backbone of a digital, electrified economy.

From EV batteries to solar panels, from data centers to semiconductors, copper runs through the veins of modern growth. And right now, those veins are under pressure.

The Global Copper Storm

Recently, copper markets went into shock after Donald Trump slapped a sudden 50% tariff on semi-finished copper imports into the U.S.

Prices on Comex plunged nearly 17% in days — a dramatic reversal after months of bullish rallying. But this was only one part of a triple whammy:

U.S. Tariff Shock

  • Trump 50% tariff targets pipes, tubes, wires, rods, and certain semi-finished copper products — notably exempting ores, concentrates, cathodes, and scrap.
  • The direct impact on India’s copper concentrate imports is less severe than early fears, though Indian tube exporters had to brace for tariffs effective August 27, 2025.

China’s Silent Squeeze

  • The world’s largest copper buyer — China — is pressuring global refiners by forcing down “treatment and refining charges” (TCRCs).
  • These charges are the lifeblood of smelters. Lower TCRCs equal tighter margins. For smelters in India, Chile, or Japan, this translates into a profitability crunch.

Indonesia’s Tightening Grip

  • Indonesia’s copper concentrate export ban took full effect on January 1, 2025, after all export quotas ceased in 2024.
  • There is an ongoing plea from firms like PT Freeport Indonesia for temporary relief after a smelter fire, but no exemptions have been granted as of late August 2025.
  • This ban continues to strain India’s over-90% dependence on imported concentrate and heightens supply-chain risks.

In short — the world’s most essential industrial metal is now caught in a storm of geopolitics, protectionism, and supply disruptions.

India’s Copper Ambition

Global volatility is not abstract — it’s happening in real time. With tariffs taking effect on August 27 and TCRCs pinned at record lows, copper remains firmly in the headlines. And yet, as the storm rages, India is scripting its own copper story.

The Rise of Kutch Copper

Adani Enterprises is commissioning the world’s largest single-site copper smelter in Mundra, Gujarat, with 500,000 tonnes annual capacity and a $1.2 billion price tag. Crucially:

  • The facility began operations in May 2025, with full ramp-up expected by late 2026.
  • Adani has officially applied to list its copper brand on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Approval would put “Made in India” copper on the global trading stage for the first time in decades.
  • The smelter secured a major supply agreement with Chile’s copper giant Codelco, bolstering  supply reliability.
  • At full capacity, the plant could reduce India’s copper cathode imports by up to 40%, a key step toward self-sufficiency.

Hindustan Copper’s Steady March

Meanwhile, state-owned Hindustan Copper reported an 18% rise in quarterly profits, reflecting operational stability in volatile times. It remains a strong domestic copper producer.

Policy as Strategy

The government’s actions emphasize copper’s strategic importance:
  • Quality Control Orders (QCOs) active since December 2024 mandate BIS certification for imports, improving quality while initially disrupting cathode inflows.
  • Overseas asset hunts through Khanij Bidesh India Ltd continue, focusing on mines in Australia, Mongolia, and Zambia.
  • Trade diplomacy progresses with Chile and Peru for long-term copper offtake agreements.
  • The Ministry of Mines’ Vision Document reinforces copper’s critical role in India’s growth and electrification strategies.

Partnerships for the Future

Adani’s collaboration with MetTube (backed by Mitsubishi Materials) to manufacture copper tubes domestically targets downstream industrial growth in HVAC, green energy, and construction, thus multiplying copper’s economic impact.

The Bigger Signal

Together, these moves signify a shift: India is positioning itself to become a copper hub. Yet Challenges endure:

  • Import dependency remains significant amid Indonesia’s ban and China’s pricing squeeze.
  • BIS standards slow some imports, tightening supply.
  • Global market volatility from tariffs, supply bans, and geopolitical tensions keeps prices unpredictable.

India’s copper Journie is nascent but deep-rooted in national strategy and market realities.

Copper’s Strategic Pulse

For investors, copper transcends commodity charts — it is a proxy for electrification, infrastructure, and geopolitical strategy.

  • Every solar panel, EV, and data center expansion in India signals growing confidence in copper demand.

  • Each tariff or supply disruption highlights copper’s crucial role in global geopolitics.

  • And for long-term portfolios, copper is not just price action — it’s a hedge on electrification, infrastructure cycles, and India’s push for strategic autonomy.

India is not merely a spectator but an active player in this high-stakes arena. Like all storied investing journeys, it will be defined by how it weathers the storm.

Closing Thought

Copper, famously dubbed “Dr. Copper,” has long been the economist’s barometer for the health of the global economy. Today, its signals are mixed and unsettled — reflecting the complexities of geopolitics and supply challenges.

Yet, if India’s ambitious vision comes to fruition, this decade could mark the moment when Dr. Copper sets up a new headquarters right in Gujarat — symbolizing not just growth, but India’s emergence as a decisive force in the world’s economic heartbeat.

Disclaimer: This update is for informational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

Recent Blogs

When the House Wins: The Battle Over India’s Gaming Gold Rush

If you’ve ever seen an industry flip from investor favorite to regulator’s target, India’s online gaming is the perfect case study.

A decade ago, gaming in India was about Candy Crush and PlayStations. Fast forward, it became about real money platforms — poker, rummy, and fantasy sports. Today, with ~500 million players, online gaming stands as one of India’s biggest digital consumption stories after payments and OTT.

For perspective: India has just under 60 million mutual fund investors, dwarfed by an online gaming user base nearly 10x larger. This underscores just how deeply mainstream gaming has become

The Shockwave: Parliament’s Ban

This week, the narrative crashed. On August 20 and 21, 2025, Parliament passed the Online Gaming (Promotion and Regulation) Bill, 2025 — first in the Lok Sabha, with the Rajya Sabha approving it by voice vote the next day — banning all real-money online games.

This came on the heels of a letter industry bodies sent to Home Minister Amit Shah, warning of job losses and capital erosion.

Overnight, this $3B+ industry stood at a regulatory cliff, triggering a stormy national debate.

The Scale of the Boom

For years, real-money gaming has been the rocket fuel of India’s gaming story. By FY23, it brought in ₹16,000 crore in revenues, with forecasts of ₹25,000+ crore by FY28.

Unicorns like Dream11, MPL, and Games24x7 rode the wave, backed by billions in venture capital. Even listed companies joined in — Nazara made an ₹800 crore bet on PokerBaazi, a bold statement of confidence.

What powered this surge? A winning mix: cheap data, mass smartphone adoption, cricket fandom, and India’s taste for quick adrenaline rushes.

The Legal Tug-of-War

The Public Gambling Act, 1867 was designed for smoky gambling dens, not mobile apps. Courts stepped in — some real-money formats were labeled “games of skill.” That gave platforms a green light.

But states weren’t convinced.

  • Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh tried blanket bans.
  • Courts struck some down, others stayed stuck in litigation.
  • The industry kept oscillating between celebration and survival.

Every legal victory gave investors fresh confidence. Every state crackdown reminded them of the industry’s fragility.

GST: The Costliest Level-Up

Then came 2023, when the GST Council dropped a 28% tax on online real-money gaming.


This wasn’t 28% on profits, but on the full-face value of bets — a deathblow for many startups.
Overnight, valuations dipped, capital dried up, and smaller players folded. Big platforms adjusted
but margins shrank.


Still, demand didn’t collapse. Indians kept playing. The industry survived — but this week
delivered the knockout punch.

The Latest Move – The Bill That Changes the Game

The message was clear: No more hair-splitting between “skill” and “chance.” For real-money
gaming, it’s game over.

For the industry, this is a devastating blow. While casual gaming (like Candy Crush, Ludo) stays
safe, real-money gaming apps now face existential risk.

The Rationale Behind the Ban

Indian lawmakers have argued that an outright ban is more effective than regulation, citing
multiple concerns:

  • Household distress– Addictive algorithms and manipulative design features driving financial ruin.
  • Financial crimes– Reported links to fraud, money laundering, tax evasion, and even terror funding.
  • Enforcement gap– Offshore operators making it harder to enforce Indian laws and ensure tax compliance.

The Stakes: Beyond Casinos & Cards

The fallout is far bigger than poker tables or fantasy leagues. There’s a market, media, and jobs ecosystem now wobbling.

  • Markets: Nazara’s shares whipsawed, and its ₹800 crore PokerBaazi buyout may face a write-down.
  • Cricket’s economy: Fantasy platforms have pumped ₹10,000+ crore into sponsorships — jerseys, leagues, tournaments. That revenue stream is now gone.
  • Jobs & Capital: Industry groups warn of 200,000 jobs lost and billions in FDI at risk.

Here’s the irony: demand won’t vanish. It could simply shift to grey markets and offshore platforms — taking tax revenues and consumer protection away with it.

Global Gaming Crossroads

Globally, gaming is booming. A $200B+ industry where countries like the US, China, and South Korea are competing for dominance.

India — with its young demographic, low-cost tech, and investor appetite — looked like it could be a natural contender.

But with a ban, India risks sidelining itself from the global table.

Why This Matters for India and Investors

  • Valuations: Public and private portfolios will take write-downs.
  • Capital Flight: Foreign investors may label India a high-policy-risk market, hurting flows beyond gaming.
  • Tax Revenue: The 28% GST (FY24 alone: over ₹10,000 crore) inflows that propped up government revenue could now vanish.
  • Shadow Markets: Demand heads offshore, where India has no oversight.
This isn’t just a gaming story. It’s about India’s policy credibility with global capital.
A Last Roll of the Dice: Endgame or Pause?

The Indian gaming story is less about play and more about policy. It shows how regulatory overhang can reshape an industry overnight — no matter the size, valuations, or consumer demand.

The big question: is this the end of India’s online real-money gaming story, or just a pause until a regulated, licensed, perhaps government-monitored gaming economy emerges?

Either way, the dice have been rolled — and the bigger gamble now isn’t being played on an app, but in India’s policy arena.

Disclaimer: This update is for informational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

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India@100 – From Freedom to Financial Powerhouse, Together

The Freedom Parallel

This week, India celebrated its 79th Independence Day — a reminder of how far we’ve come since 1947, when our GDP stood at around $20 billion, less than the market cap of a single large-cap stock today. The nation was young, its economy fragile, but its ambition — boundless.

Today, we are a $4 trillion economy, among the world’s top five, home to over 100 unicorns, a thriving startup ecosystem, and deepening capital markets.

The Journie from political freedom to economic force is more than a historical arc — it’s a masterclass in long-term compounding. We owe this progress to the forces, farmers, workers, entrepreneurs, and nation-builders who have shaped and continue to shape our India.

With 2047 marking our 100th year of freedom, the next 21 years promise to be a defining chapter in India’s growth story.

The Golden Tailwinds to 2047

As we look ahead to India’s 100th year of independence, the next phase of our Journie is powered by tailwinds few large economies can match:
  • Demographic Dividend: By 2040, we will still have one of the youngest, most productive workforces globally, fueling both innovation and consumption.

  • Manufacturing & Financial Hubs: PLI schemes, GIFT City, and supply-chain diversification are positioning India as a global manufacturing and financial centre.

  • Digital Scale: From UPI to ONDC, India’s tech stack is driving efficiency and inclusion at a pace few nations can match.

  • Domestic Capital Strength: Indian households are becoming the backbone of market resilience, reducing dependence on foreign flows.

The Compounding Perspective

Just as independence was won through persistence and belief, financial independence is achieved by staying the course. The numbers tell the story:

  • In 1991, the BSE Sensex hovered near 1,000 points.

  • Today, it’s above 75,000 — a ~13% CAGR over three decades, achieved despite wars, crises, and political shifts.

  • Extend that discipline to 2047, and even conservative compounding could see indices multiply several times over.

The Global Lens

Other nations — from the US after WWII to China post-1978 economic reforms — saw explosive growth when structural reforms met favourable demographics.

India now stands at a similar inflection point, with democracy, demographics, and digital convergence creating a once-in-a-generation opportunity.

India at 2047

As we reflect on our 79th Independence Day, we’re reminded that freedom was hard-won and preserved through discipline. The same applies to financial freedom.

When we stand at India@100, your portfolio will tell the story of a nation that converted its economic rise into enduring prosperity.

Independence gave us the right to dream.

Disciplined investing gives us the means to live those dreams.

Happy Independence Day! Jai Hind! 🇮🇳

Disclaimer: This update is for informational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

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The Silent Drain: When Smart Cash Management Triggers a Tax Surprise

The treasury team has one simple brief: “Don’t let that cash sit idle.”

So, the company parks surplus liquidity into low-risk corporate cash alternatives — liquid funds, overnight and ultra-short debt funds, short-term debt funds.

Low risk. Decent yield. Smart move.

Until the GST review.

An unexpected line item appears on the reconciliation sheet.

The finance head frowns: “How did managing our own cash turn into a tax adjustment?”

The answer lies in a rarely discussed GST provision that turns an otherwise smart treasury move into a hidden cost.

This week’s Shot uncovers a silent drain on corporate returns — one that hides in plain sight.

Across industries, companies flush with surplus cash turn to debt mutual funds for steady returns. But beneath the surface, a little-known GST provision — the ‘deemed exempt supply’ rule — can quietly eat into those gains.

This rule values mutual fund redemptions at 1% for tax purposes, triggering a proportionate reversal of input tax credit (ITC) on certain expenses.

We break down how it works, why even seasoned CFOs miss it, and how to structure treasury moves without sacrificing valuable credits.

The Case of a Healthcare Company

Recently, a large healthcare manufacturer approached the Authority for Advance Ruling (AAR) with what they thought was a routine question:

We pay GST on services like accounting, legal, and compliance support. Some of these help us with our mutual fund transactions. Can we claim ITC on them?”

The answer from the AAR? No ITC on those inputs for the investment activity, and a proportionate reversal was required for the common input services used across the business.

Why the Law Says No — Without the Legalese

  • Business vs Treasury: Your core operations are taxable supplies — ITC applies. Parking surplus in mutual funds is a capital allocation move, not a taxable supply “in furtherance of business.”
  • Securities = Exempt: Under GST, mutual fund units are treated as securities, outside the scope of taxable goods/services, and classed as exempt supplies.
  • The 1% Rule:  GST rules deem 1% of the redemption value as exempt turnover — not 1% of the gain, but 1% of the full sale value.
  • Proportionate Reversal: Once exempt supply exists, Rule 42 and Section 17 require proportionate ITC reversal on shared inputs.

Put simply: treasury investments are not taxable supplies; GST treats a small fraction (1%) as exempt for valuation — and that fraction forces a slice of your ITC to be given up.

How the 1% Deemed Exempt Supply Affects ITC — An Example

ITC Reversal = Value of Exempt Supply/Total Turnover × Total ITC

Say:

  • Redemption Value of Mutual Fund Units = ₹15 crore
  • Total Turnover of Business = ₹150 crore (including all taxable and exempt sales)
  • Total ITC* available = ₹10 lakh

Calculate:

  • Value of Exempt Supply = 1% × ₹15 crore = ₹15 lakh
  • Ratio = ₹15 lakh / ₹150 crore = 0.01 (or 1%)
  • ITC Reversal= 0.01 × ₹10 lakh = ₹10,000

* Under GST, any service costs tied directly to investment activity — such as accounting, advisory, or legal — are ineligible for ITC

Why Corporates Miss This

In practice, treasury teams focus on ROI and liquidity — not the nuances of GST reversals. Tax teams may not be involved in investment choices.

The 1% deemed value rule is buried deep in legislation, and the reversal often appears as a minor reconciliation item, surfacing only during audits.

At a Glance: The Rulebook

Provision

What It Does

Section 17(2)

No ITC on inputs for exempt supplies

Section 17(3)

Treats securities as exempt

Rule 42

Requires proportional ITC reversal

Rule 45(2)(b)

Deems 1% of mutual fund value as exempt for ITC purposes

Treasury Moves to Stay Ahead

  • Integrate Tax & Treasury: Loop tax, GST, and compliance teams into treasury policy decisions.
  • Track & Accrue: Regularly compute and accrue ITC reversals tied to treasury investments to avoid surprises at period-end.
  • Evaluate Net Yield: When choosing between inflows (overnight funds, ultra-short, short-term debt), compare net yield after ITC reversal — not just headline yield.
  • Document Usage: Maintain records linking which input services support treasury activity (time sheets, internal memos, invoices).
  • Consider Alternatives: If ITC erosion is meaningful, explore cash tools or structures with better GST treatment.
  • Periodic Review: Build ITC reversal checks into internal audits and GST compliance reviews.
The Bottom Line

Idle cash can earn you extra returns.

But if you’re not factoring in GST reversals, your real yield could be lower than you think. In treasury management, the smartest move isn’t just chasing returns — it’s protecting the credits that sustain them.

Because in corporate finance, what you keep matters as much as what you earn. And sometimes, keeping more starts with looking closer at the fine print.

Disclaimer: This update is for informational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

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Income Plus Arbitrage FoF - A Quite Revolution in Low-Risk Investing

Welcome to this week’s shot from Journie.

Before we dive in, thank you for the love and support you have shown to Sunday Shots. Your trust inspires us to keep finance thoughtful and human.

And as Operation Sindoor continues, we pause to salute those who serve —men and women in uniform who stand tall, so we can stand free.

The Silent Shift

Not long ago, conservative investors had a simple formula:

Fixed Deposits (FDs) or Debt Mutual Funds for capital safety — and the occasional equity mutual fund for a growth kicker. But the rules of the game have changed.

Since April 2023, a subtle shift has been unfolding. Fund houses have been quietly launching a new breed of funds – Income Plus Arbitrage Fund of Funds (FoFs). 

But, why the sudden buzz? Let’s walk you through the story.

The Tax Domino Effect

Imagine you’re an investor who parked ₹10 lakh in a traditional debt mutual fund, aiming for stable returns and lower taxes after 3 years. Until recently,

that plan made tax sense — thanks to the long-term capital gains (LTCG) benefit with indexation. But the 2023 Finance Bill rewrote the rules.

Now, for investments made after April 1, 2023, all gains from debt mutual funds — whether held for 3 days or 3 years, are taxed at your income slab rate, and indexation benefits are gone. Debt funds no longer enjoy their historical tax edge.

In contrast, arbitrage funds—while carrying debt-like risk—are structured as equity, and still benefit from favorable equity taxation:

    • 20% for short-term gains (held < 1 year)
    • 12.5% for long-term gains (held > 1 year, gains above ₹1.25 lakh)

Fund houses saw an opportunity: What if you could blend arbitrage returns with the stability of income assets—and still retain equity-style taxation?

Enter: Income Plus Arbitrage Fund of Funds.

What Is This Fund?

At its core, it’s a basket fund that invests primarily in:
  • Arbitrage funds (to maintain equity exposure for equity taxation)
  • Short-term debt, overnight, and income funds (to enhance liquidity and cushion volatility)
    • The result is a product that behaves like a low-volatility debt fund, but gets taxed like an equity fund. And because this is a Fund of Funds, it doesn’t invest directly in securities — it invests in handpicked mutual funds, across both these strategies, dynamically rebalanced by expert managers to reflect evolving conditions.

    A Strategy That Shields and Seeks

    In every market cycle, there’s a space between panic and potential. This is where this fund operates – silently, efficiently.
  • Hedged arbitrage positions neutralize equity swings
  • Short-duration debt exposure reduces interest rate and credit risks
  • FoF structure adds diversification across top-performing schemes
  • Tactical rebalancing keeps the fund nimble, not reactive

    • Tax Efficiency: The Real Game-Changer

    A well-built fund should do more than grow — it should endure. Here’s how it stacks up against traditional choices:

    image-3

    *Estimated for a 30% tax bracket; subject to market volatility.

    Income Plus Arbitrage FOFs delivers upto 6.3%, post-tax annualised returns, depending on market volatility and fund efficiency.

    Compare that with FDs at ~4.6%–4.9% annualized returns (post-tax) —and the edge becomes clear, especially when you factor in tax efficiency:

    So, What’s the Catch?

  • Returns Are Not Fixed – Unlike FDs, these funds don’t guarantee returns. Arbitrage spreads can compress in volatile or low-liquidity markets.
  • Short-Term Performance May Vary – If redeemed within 2 year, gains are taxed at slab rate, and market timing may affect returns slightly.
  • Fund Manager Execution – Returns depend on the manager ’s ability to balance arbitrage and income fund exposure efficiently.

    • Who Should Consider This?

    It ’s designed for investors who prefer measured movement over market fluctuation:
  • Those seeking low-volatility, post-tax-efficient returns
  • Portfolios needing a buffer without compromising growth
  • Investors with a 2–3 year horizon and moderate risk appetite
  • Comfortable with market-linked returns but prefer stability over high growth
    • Final Thoughts: The Portfolio Peacekeeper

    In a world where tax rules shift , and safe instruments struggle to beat inflation, innovation matters.

    Income Plus Arbitrage FoFs are not magic bullets—but they are smart, tax-efficient vehicles in the new investment landscape.

    If you want the stability of debt with a tax twist, these FoFs might just be worth a closer look. It may not be the hero of your portfolio. But it might just be the reason your portfolio sleeps better at night

    “The best investment strategies don’t chase—they position”

    Disclaimer: This update is for informational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

    Recent Blogs

    The Nifty Illusion: Why Index Investing Is More Than Just Nifty or Sensex

    A growing number of investors are embracing index investing — but for many, it begins and ends with the Nifty 50 or Sensex Index Fund.

    This has become a popular trend in recent years, driven by branding, the illusion of safety, sheer familiarity and the social media influencers.

    But this belief is not only limiting, it may seriously hamper long-term wealth creation and risk diversification.

    Let’s debunk the myth in this week’s Sunday Shots — that “index investing = Nifty/Sensex” — with hard data, and provide a more nuanced understanding of Indian indices and efficient investing strategies.

    What Is an Index? Understanding the Foundation

    An index is simply a basket of securities grouped together by a shared trait.

    In India, we have over 100 equity indices, with themes spanning across:

      • Market-cap based: Nifty 50, Nifty Midcap 150, Nifty Smallcap 250
      • Sectoral: Nifty IT, Nifty FMCG, Nifty Bank
      • Thematic: Nifty India Consumption, Nifty ESG, Nifty Infrastructure
      • Factor-based: Nifty Low Volatility 30, Nifty Alpha 50, Nifty Quality 30
      • Strategy indices: Equal Weight, Dividend Yield, GARP, etc.

    Each index is designed to serve a different purpose or capture a distinct market segment.

    ❝ Sticking only to the Nifty or Sensex is like owning just one ingredient in a vast kitchen — you are missing out on the richness and balance that true diversification brings. ❞

    The Illusion of Safety: Why Nifty/Sensex Is Not Truly Diversified

    Nifty 50 and Sensex represent the largest blue-chip companies, but they are heavily concentrated in a few sectors and companies:

      • Financials and conglomerates dominate, leaving you exposed to cyclical downturns
      • 60–70% of the index is driven by just 10 names, mostly in BFSI, Energy, and Tech, definitely it does not make it bad, but just too concentrated
      • It’s market-cap weighted (Free Float) — meaning overvalued stocks can become even more dominant
      • There’s very little sectoral diversification — manufacturing, digital innovation, and consumer segments are underrepresented
      • In volatile phases, it becomes top heavy — often tracking momentum more than strength

    Each index is designed to serve a different purpose or capture a distinct market segment.

    The result? You’re not really buying broader India’s growth story. You’re just buying its biggest stocks — on autopilot.

    The Data Tells the Real Story

    To ensure a fair comparison, we analyzed funds from a few larger AMC’s in the same large-cap and hybrid/balanced categories (which are inherently less volatile) with UTI Nifty 50 Index Fund (The oldest Index fund in India) for the last 20 years (May 2005- June 2025) — and the outcome led us to write this week’s Sunday Shot.

    Even funds with hybrid allocation or balanced advantage — like ICICI Equity & Debt or HDFC BAF — delivered better 5-year performance than Nifty 50, with far lower downside.

    The myth that lower equity means lower returns simply doesn’t hold. And all other major large cap funds were able to beat UTI Nifty 50 Index fund with decent margins.

    Despite being “just” a hybrid or large-cap strategy, ICICI Pru Equity & Debt not only delivered higher average returns, but also cushioned downside better than the Nifty 50.

    HDFC BAF, while more conservative, managed to cut drawdowns by more than half, and also the outperformance of the other active Large-Cap funds continued even in the shorter time frame, with technically similar drawdowns.

    But the real results revealed when the period was cut down to 1 year rolling performance.

    In the short term, volatility spares no one — but surprisingly Nifty 50 shows the highest drawdowns, compared to any other active large cap fund, and a few funds like DSP and HDFC Large caps showed 10% lesser drawdown as compared to Nifty 50 Index Fund.

    In deep market crashes like 2011 or choppy phases like 2022, the active Large-caps and Hybrids did much better as compared to a Nifty Index Fund.

    And even in bullish years like 2014, 2017, 2023 the out performance of the Active Funds is visible.

    The Opportunity We’re Ignoring

    Despite all the hype and marketing around the Nifty 50, the data tells a quieter truth:

    Strategic allocation across broader indices — hybrid, factor-based, sectoral, or even active large-cap — hasn’t just delivered more wealth.
    It’s delivered smoother, less nerve-wracking journeys.

    You wouldn’t bet your future on a single stock.
    So why bet it all on a single index?

    Why This Matters for Wealth Creation

    Index investing is a great foundation, but not a full wealth-building strategy.

    Building real wealth requires indexing across themes, factors, and even balanced mandates. Static Nifty/Sensex investing may underperform and expose you to similar equity risks, but doesn’t account for risk adjusted returns completely.

    The data proves: No one index fund is always the best performer. Diversification—across styles, factors, assets and time—is the real secret.

    The Bottom Line: Rethinking “Safe” Index Investing​

    The myth that “index means Nifty/Sensex” limits your long-term potential and leaves risk unaddressed.

    India’s markets are full of indices and funds that let you diversify easily — sectoral, thematic, balanced, and factor-based.

    Optimal wealth creation comes from a smart blend of indices, not blind faith in the headlines.

    Stop following the crowd. Start building your own winning, diversified index portfolio. The numbers, and your future self — will thank you.

    Index investing isn’t about comfort — it’s rooted in clarity. Build wealth with strategy, not trends.

    Until Next Sunday!

    Disclaimer: This update is for informational purposes only. Please consult a SEBI-registered advisor before investing.

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